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Global Market Watch - 14th August 2020

GBP/EUR was quiet as the main market movement was a weakening US dollar. GBP/USD pushed higher but couldn’t break recent highs as the positive jobless claims saw the dollar gain support. The UK has added France, the Netherlands and Malta to a list of countries from which people arriving have to quarantine for 14 days.
In relatively quiet trading, EUR/USD pushed higher before slipping back towards important support. It was helped as the US didn’t increase sanctions on EU exports as it had threatened. This morning we have GDP for release, which we expect to have fallen 12.1% in Q2, and the trade balance to rebound to an 18-billion-euro surplus in July. Germany is starting to see an increase in virus cases.

The dollar was sold first off as the market focused on the complete stasis in Congress. It then recovered somewhat, in this holiday trading, after jobless claims fell below 1 million for the first time since the pandemic struck. We have important retail sales for release this afternoon and expect an increase of 1.9% after last month’s 7.5% rise.
The AUD couldn’t take full advantage of the excellent jobs data and slipped lower later in the day before RBA governor, Lowe, spoke in the evening. He said he would like the currency lower to spur jobs growth and this weighed upon the AUD.

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